Virginia a 62/37 Obama blowout. So much for Clinton’s advantage in the primary format. Obama is poaching from Clinton’s base (e.g., Latinos 55/45 Obama), and this will continue for the next several weeks. If Clinton can recover, I don’t see how. Winning in Ohio/Texas won’t be good enough; she’ll need blowouts, and how likely is that?
This is looking more and more like a done deal. The only reason there isn’t more unanimity about it is because the media doesn’t want to get burned again as it was in New Hampshire. But the dynamics are completely different now compared to the first week of the primary season. A more consistent pattern has locked in. I think we’ll be seeing this as the narrative that emerges in the next week or so. As I’ve said, the analysis is several steps behind what is happening.
One of the silliest narratives, still repeated even today on NPR, is that today is the day that Obama takes the lead, as if he has been running behind this whole race. In pledged delegates he has had the lead pretty much since Iowa. The superdelegates have muddied the waters and should be a separate category not included in the horserace delegate totals. Clinton’s advantage there since before the primaries began has created a false sense that somehow she’s been the leader all along. She just hasn’t been in any way that really matters. The superdelegates are not going to change the final outcome.
Delighted that the Republicans are fissiparating. The Democrats look positively chummy by comparison. Boy do the Dittoheads hate McCain or what?
More as night progresses.
UPDATE 1: I’ve been meaning to point out the obvious, that those who think that Hillary is an experienced, savvy administrator have a lot of ‘splaining to do in light of this Patti Solis Doyle fiasco. Which "executive" has been running the better campaign to date? Read this Atlantic account: Fiscal mismanagement, hubristic sense of inevitability, blind loyalty. Been there, done that. Time to move on.
Another interesting point in today’s MSNBC coverage. A Texas Latino analyst (didn’t get the name) reports that the average age of Latinos in Texas is 27 as compared with 36 nationwide, and young Latinos are in the Obama camp.
UPDATE 2: D.C. and MD also blowouts. MSNBC says that Clinton must get at least 56% of the vote from here on out to win. That number goes up after she loses in Wisconsin and Hawaii. Hard to see how she will be able to get that magnitude of win. Plouffe says Obama’s delegate lead is at 136, netting 50 more delegates Tuesday night. Says it’s unsurmountable. I agree.
UPDATE 3: It should be noted somewhere on this blog that today Bush and his Democratic enablers got the FISA and telecom immunity victory that they were looking for in the Senate. No telling how many booby traps Bush will be setting before he leaves. Still eleven months to go. Still some hope the house might take a stand?
UPDATE 4: Summing the Night Up: There simply is no good news for Clinton, and there won’t be for some time to come, if ever. No need for more analysis of the results than that. Twenty days to go until 3/4. Seems like a looong time to sit around without any good news. And it’s plenty of time for an Obama inevitability narrative to develop in the public imagination. The real numbers (as opposed to fickle poll numbers) support it. What can Clinton say to counter? Does it make a difference at this point if she gets narrow wins in Texas and Ohio? I would expect that desperation will force the Clintons to go negative again, but I think it’s too late for that to work because it will look like an act of desperation.
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