After the Future

January 29, 2009

Obama & Centrist Coalition Building

It's clearly counterproductive to think anything along those lines is possible with Congressional Republicans. Making nice with the Republicans simply will not work. Obama has to find a way to erode the ground upon which these guys
stand. Over the next ten years, it's got to be understood that the only place a Republican can
get elected is in the backest of neo-Confederate
backwaters. If he's to avoid making Clinton's mistakes, he has to go on offense hard and soon. He can do that by going over Congressional heads to the American public. If there's any coalition building to be had, it's out there on Main Street, not within the Beltway.

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John Ortbal

January 29, 2009

Jack: Obama’s efforts to make nice with Republicans may be buying time as his campaign organization transforms into “Organizing for America.” This would be a new kind of force that could, if managed properly, be used to pressure Congress and others to support Obama’s policies and initiatives. When you consider the potential, it makes Karl Rove look like an amateur.
The Washington Post recently reported, “Obama’s inauguration coincides with the creation of Organizing for America, a successor to his Obama for America campaign structure. In a video link e-mailed Saturday in support of what staff members refer to as “OFA 2.0,” Obama told supporters that “the movement you’ve built is too important to stop growing now.”
The Chicago Tribune reports that, “Organizers and even Republicans say the scope of this permanent campaign structure is unprecedented for a president. People familiar with the plan say Obama’s team would use the network in part to pressure lawmakers — particularly wavering Democrats — to help him pass complex legislation on the economy, healthcare and energy.
The plan could prompt tensions with members of Congress, who are unlikely to welcome the idea of Obama’s political network targeting them from within their own districts. Already, Democratic Party officials on the state level worry that it could become a competing political force that revolves around the president’s ambitions while diminishing the needs of down-ballot Democrats.”
Obama is supposedly backing the organization with a budget of $75 million from private donations to hire a permenant staff. In addition,”The full-time staff is likely to consist primarily of the presidential campaign workers, many in their 20s, who served as the local points of contact for the campaign’s vast network of neighborhood volunteers. As part of the new organization, these workers probably would focus on similar campaign-style tasks, such as arranging phone banks, distributing signs, recruiting more helpers, buying coffee and doughnuts for house meetings and reporting voter contact data to senior officials.”
It will be interesting to see when and where this organization will be leveraged…stay tuned.

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jack Whelan

January 29, 2009

John–
I’ve been hearing rumors of such things, and I hope you’re right. It’s in the hope that he can make something like what you describe work that I even write today about Obama doing this end run around congress. But it’s not clear yet whether such an organization can work effectively in mobilizing support for things other than an election. I hope he can do it; it just remains to be seen.
I think Obama is right in the short run to try to reach out to Republicans in Congress if only to demonstrate to Main Streeters how obstructionist and out of touch these politicians are.
I haven’t had much to say in recent weeks because I’m in a watch and see mode. I wanted Obama over Clinton early on because I saw Clinton as someone who accepted the rules of the game as they are currently set up and Obama as someone who wanted to change the rules and was capable enough to do it. I still believe that’s true.
I deeply appreciate how difficult a balancing act he must perform and that he cannot move simultaneously on all fronts. There has to be significant foundation-laying work behind the scenes, and there has to be the kind of mechanism that you describe whereby he can mobilize Main Street to give him the popular support he’ll need when the gloves eventually come off if he’s to take on entrenched Beltway power.

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John Ortbal

January 30, 2009

Jack, I think the entrenched Beltway power structure may already be feeling uncomfortable with what’s going on…especially some Democrats who recognize their traditional “base” may be challenged by the type of organization the Obama campaign could morph into.
Initial signs point to leveraging Organizing for America to promote healthcare reform. Before the end of 2008, Obama and Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Daschle (former democratic Senator from South Dakota) encouraged supporters to hold house parties to discuss health care reform. More than 4,200 “healthcare house parties” were held nationwide during the two-week period from December 15-30, with an average attendance of twelve people per party.
A report will supposedly be issued summarizing what people said at the meetings. The NY Times reported on one such party in Virginia where the attendees concluded.
• They despise insurance companies;
• Health care is a right;
• Insurance should cover “everything;”
• Individuals and businesses should pay a small tax to finance universal coverage;
• Coverage should be available from the government.
Just yesterday, the Senate passed a health insurance bill aimed at insuring 4 million children without coverage. The vote was 66 to 32, with nine Republicans joining Democrats to support the bill. The House passed a nearly identical bill two weeks ago, by a vote of 289 to 139, with 40 Republicans joining nearly all Democrats in support of the measure.
The NY Times reported that “The Senate debate showed the outlines of what promises to be a much larger political fight over universal coverage. While Democrats championed expansion of the child health program, many Republicans, including Senator John McCain of Arizona, said they worried that it was part of a long-term effort to replace private health insurance with government programs.” McCain was quoted as saying, “Some of us who look at this bill may view it as another effort to eliminate, over time, private insurance in America, and I am concerned about that.”
The struggle for healthcare reform has only just begun and could well be the first major test of Organizing for America. To quote the Betty Davis character in the movie All About Eve, “Fasten your seat belts. It’s going to be a bumpy night.”

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Obama & Centrist Coalition Building

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