Is there a scenario in which DeSantis can win the GOP nomination? Maybe. I don't think that DeSantis or any of the others running for the GOP nomination can win the nomination unless Trump's legal problems cripple his candidacy. We just don't know yet how the coming indictments will affect him politically. For now, at least, I'm in the camp that believes his legal jeopardy strengthens his candidacy with the MAGA base, and so makes it extremely difficult for DeSantis or any of the others in a split field to emerge strong enough to beat him.
But we don't know what's going to come out about Trump as these indictments start hitting, and there's good reason to believe that as bad as is everything we already know about Trump, the reality is probably much worse. People like DeSantis are in position to make the case that for the MAGA cause to win and flourish, it needs a leader without Trump's liabilities, and I don't see any of the other candidates who are in a better position to assume the MAGA mantle than DeSantis.
So while the media for now tend to look at DeSantis as an unlikeable, Nixonesque bumbler, Nixon proved that being an unlikeable Machiavellian sociopathic schemer doesn't make one unelectable. Besides, he has time to get his act together by next spring when people are actually paying attention. He is in the strongest position to win the nomination should Trump become broadly perceived by the MAGA base as unelectable in the general. He already is unelectable, but MAGA World doesn't believe it yet. That might change by this time next year. If it does, DeSantis will probably be the guy most capable of elbowing his way to the front of the MAGA parade.
But the bottom line is that a constrained sociopath like DeSantis scares me far more than an unconstrained one like Trump because DeSantis can fake being a Normie in a way that is acceptable to swing voters. Florida swing voters bought his act in '22, but would they re-elect him in '26? Not sure, but if not it's because Florida swing voters have seen up close what post-Covid authoritarian DeSantis is like in a way that swing voters in other states can't from afar. So while Biden might still be able to beat DeSantis, it will be much, much harder. Nevertheless, it won't be a cakewalk for DeSantis because he will have the very difficult job of retaining the MAGA Kooks while broadening his appeal to Normie swing voters. (See Note 1) It remains to be seen whether he has the political chops to do that. But he'll have the massive support of conservative media and the broader business community who care more about deregulation and taxes than they do about what their HR department says should be their DEI policies.
Your typical swing voters don't think their votes for president in '24 are about the survival of democracy in the U.S. They think only Kooks on the Left and Right believe that. They're wrong, but that doesn't matter. They just want normalcy, and whoever makes the better case that they are for normal and the other guy isn't wins. So for swing voters it comes down to Normies vs Kooks. If MAGA works against the GOP in the general, Woke works against the Democrats. The country elected Biden in 2020 because in an election between Normies vs. Kooks, Biden wins the Normie vote. The election in '24 will also largely depend on who wins the Normie vote.
Will most swing voters associate the GOP with the MAGA Kooks, or will they associate the Dems with the Woke Kooks? Remains to be seen. But you can be sure that the the GOP will make the anti-Woke Kook theme the core of their campaign, and it's not clear to me whether Dems understand their vulnerability. Their cosmopolitan smugness blinds them in that respect, and Dem Pols still seem quaintly to believe, based on their talking points on TV, that what most voters really care about is policy.
See also Why I Prefer Trump 1 and Why I Prefer Trump 2.
Note 1: I disagree with Tim Miller in this regard–the question is not who would be worse–Trump or DeSantis–but who is more electable. If the American electorate is so insane as to elect Trump again, well that's the end. America goes out with a bang. If DeSantis gets elected, which is far more likely, America goes out with a whimper. MAGA wins either way. Choose your poison–cyanide or arsenic.
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