With 59% reporting it’s Obama 57, Clinton 42. It’s not 70/30, but it could be 60/40 by the end of the night. More on implications later. Romney wins big, too. Go figure.
UPDATE: It did come in pretty close to 60/40 with a 59/40 total at the end of the night. What does it mean? Well, to reiterate the points I was making in my comments section after the Washington Caucus Posts yesterday, I was interested to see whether Maine voters would behave more like their neighbors New Hampshire and Massachusetts or more like Washington State and Nebraska. If the second, then it would be strong evidence that the stalemate that seemed to be in place after Super Tuesday has broken. And a 60/40 split is a huge blowout which I think has to also blow out the conventional wisdom about stalemate. Obama is in control of this race now.
I think the Maine results are a pretty strong indicator that a lot of the momentum that people who pay attention were feeling a week or two before, began to ripple out into the broader electorate, but the ripples didn’t really hit the northeast, except for Connecticut. Now it appears that they have, and we’ll probably have confirmation of that on Tuesday. And if the Tuesday contests are blowouts like the last four, I don’t know how support for Hillary in Ohio and Texas is going to hold up against that.
Hillary has had the advantage of being the known quantity and so the safe vote for those who are not political junkies, but people are getting a better feel for who Obama is now, and it’s finally sinking in: this dude is different. The Obama brand is soaring right now. Maybe the Clintons will find a way to beat him back, but I don’t see how.
If Obama gets a 200+ pledged delegate lead, I don’t see how Clinton can catch up unless something bizarre happens. If Obama has a 200 pledged delegate lead but not enough to get to the 2025 needed to cross the finish line, there’s no way the DNC is going to allow the superdelegates to throw it to Clinton. See also here.
P.S. I think this analysis in the NY Times dated 2/11 is about a week out of date. It focuses on how voters are locked in to an identity voting pattern that isn’t likely to break. Probably submitted Friday evening. It comes across as rather clueless except for the last paragraphs:
One factor muted thus far could also change the [locked in identity voting] pattern: momentum. Tad Devine, a top aide for candidates from Walter Mondale to John Kerry, calls this slower-paced part of the Democratic race Stage 4. The first stage was 2007 fund-raising; the second was the kickoff contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina; the third was the 22-state contest on Feb. 5.
The front-loaded calendar jammed the first three phases so closely together as to blunt momentum from one state to the next. But “momentum can be the driving force in this stage,” Mr. Devine said, since voters have more time to absorb who is moving ahead and who is lagging.
If he is right, Mr. Obama could gain an edge beginning this week.
The momentun has already kicked in and the edge is already there.
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