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After the Future

Washington Caucus Report (Updates 1-5)

I’ll be updating as I get more info, but I just got back and at least in our district, it was overwhelmingly pro-Obama. Our caucus had 82 people in it,…

I’ll be updating as I get more info, but I just got back and at least in our district, it was overwhelmingly pro-Obama. Our caucus had 82 people in it, and 65 went for Obama, and the other caucus groups were similar. I don’t know if that says much about the direction of the state. I live in North Seattle, part of the very secure congressional district that puts "Baghdad" Jim McDermott in office every two years. And the suburbs and the Eastern part of the state have very different voting patterns.

But it was a huge turnout.  In ’04, there were maybe fifty people in our caucus group–which every one at the time thought was very large by past standards, so this group was significantly larger than that one.  People are pumped up, and they are mostly pumped for Obama. Yesterday Obama filled Key Arena in Seattle where the Sonics play with 17,000  people with 3000 standing outside. Clinton spoke at a college in Tacoma
to a crowd of about 5000. 

UPDATE 1: Diaries from DailyKos support the idea that Obama is going to win big in Washington.  Did not read anyone reporting a district Clinton has won.

UPDATE 2:  Watching CNN.  Boy are they screwing things up. Map of Puget Sound area shows Seattle where Tacoma is. They are mistaking the county convention delegates for the popular vote, and in general seem out of their element.  But the numbers even in Eastern Washington, assuming they are correct, are as good as they seem to be in the Seattle area.  It looks like roughly 70-30%. 

We’re not talking just double digit victory here; we’re talking blowout. Looks like a similar blowout in Nebraska.  Will this affect next week’s contests?  Or will the stalemate logic still apply?  If Clinton has to wait for Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, might she start looking a lot like Giuliani? Again, we’re not talking about squeakers here; these are big, big blowouts.

UPDATE 3: County by county results here. Blowouts across the entire state. Perhaps Hillary will not take even one.  Check out Garfield County.  One delegate for Obama with 100% of districts reporting.  Must be Republican country.

UPDATE4: Watching Obama’s speech in Virginia. Clearly an Obama crowd. Where is the good news for Clinton?  Obama just wins Louisiana by double digits. Can Clinton hang in for long without some substantive good news to point to? I’m beginning to think that we’re watching a significant shift. I think the blowout factor makes it a far more open question now whether Clinton will be able to hold on to Texas and Ohio. Maybe Super Tuesday came a week too early for the momentum building the previous week to make the difference for Obama we thought it might.  Maybe the stalemate narrative was premature, then, as well.

UPDATE 5: Pet peeve: The situation with the superdelegates is far too fluid to give us a sense of what the real delegate picture is.  I wish media and blog accounts would make much more clear than they do the distinction between committed (or pledged) delegates and superdelegates.  The only ones that matter now are the pledged delegates. Counts that include the superdelegates are just muddying the waters.  Anyway, today’s count gives Obama a lead of 72 pledged delegates. David Plouffe is clear:

Based on estimates of returns, Obama more than doubled his current pledged delegate lead. Entering tonight, the lead was 27 pledged delegates, it is now estimated to be a lead of 72. In the four contests today, we estimate we won 103 delegates to Clinton’s 58 delegates for a net gain of 45 delegates.

This net gain of 45 delegates represent more than the 42 delegate net gain Senator Clinton earned in the states of Massachusetts, New Jersey, Tennessee and Arizona – combined.

The pledged delegate total through February 9 now stands at 1,012 for Obama and 940 for Clinton.

 

Comments

8 responses

  1. Matt Zemek Avatar
    Matt Zemek

    Obama dominated the seven precincts at my caucus location here in Washington state (Seattle).
    My individual precinct, with 95 people present, went 77 to 18 in favor of Obama.
    The big question today is, “will Obama win Nebraska,” a state that seems very close?
    Louisiana is also tricky only because it’s Hillary’s former neighboring state of Arkansas.

    Reply
  2. Matt Zemek Avatar
    Matt Zemek

    I did notice that the Cleveland Plain Dealer endorsed Obama.
    If Obama can merely gain Ohio, a loss in Texas (still likely, I think) wouldn’t sting so much. The win in Ohio would give him crucial leverage and momentum in Pennsylvania on April 22, and if Obama can carry Ohio and Pennsylvania, his many pickups in small states should give him an overall delegate lead (not necessarily enough to win the nomination, but definitely a delegate lead) heading into the convention.
    And if Obama has a delegate lead heading into the convention, that should be enough to get him the nomination after some backroom dealings and some skirmishes about Florida and Michigan delegates.
    Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns agreed to the DNC rules, which stipulated that neither state would seat its delegates at the convention. No way Hillary’s forces win a floor fight (or any other kind of fight) on that score.
    I think what today does, Jack, is that it makes Ohio more and more of a toss-up and a potential Obama pickup. But Hillary is still the fave in Texas. The analogy with Giuliani doesn’t quite work because these states that come late on the calendar can’t be said to have been ignored or minimized by a candidate. Rudy had the chance to contest the early states, but opted not to. With Hillary, it’s different.
    Still, a great day for Obama. Tuesday should witness another three-pack pickup (VA, MD, DC).

    Reply
  3. Jack Whelan Avatar
    Jack Whelan

    Matt–
    My point about Giuliani I think stands all the more. Hillary is losing states she tried to contest, and that only makes her look weaker. She doesn’t even have Giuliani’s excuse that she didn’t try.
    The firewall she’s hoping Ohio and Texas will be for her might very well have significantly eroded as the the wins for Obama keep coming.
    Obama is supposed to win tomorrow and in the Chesapeake races on Tuesday. What if these races, too, are blowouts? What good news is there going to be Hillary between now and Texas/Ohio? March 4 is an eternity away from now, and a lot can change even in the next week.
    The point is that if Hillary doesn’t win, whether she tries or not, before 3/4, things will look very different then than they do now. Has she ever led even for a day in the committed delegate count? (maybe briefly)
    In everybody’s mind she’s been the front runner, but in reality she’s been playing catch up all along. Obama even won the delegate count in Nevada, remember? If he keeps pulling ahead, it might be very hard for her to catch up. So even if she wins Texas/Ohio, she has to win big for it to make a difference. If Obama has a couple of hundred delegates lead when all is said and done, the superdelegates should all go Obama’s way. It would be an outrage if they did not.
    That today’s races were such blowouts is the reason I think there’s a shift. You thought Nebraska was going to be close. It was nowhere near close. And it’s not just in one state or region. The building momentum missed Super Tuesday, but it hit today. (They should really ban absentee ballots–this idea that somehow it promotes democratic participation is bunk. It fouls the waters in ways that the convenience/consumer mentality has a hard time grasping.)
    Anyway, I’ll take it all back if the races in the next couple of days are backlash votes for HC as N.H. was, but I think that we might be beginning to see that the fundamental dynamics of the race have changed. The Super Tuesday vote was too early to show any evidence for it.

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  4. anon Avatar
    anon

    The analogy between Rudy and Hillary doesn’t work because there were so many candidates in the Republican race (McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, and Paul) that Rudy was drowned out of the media mix. With Hilary, since the Democratic nomination is only between two candidates and since she is more of a media heavyweight than Giuliani could ever be, she’ll still receive the necessary media attention, which was lacking with Giulian and what ultimately killed him. (Did you ever hear about the story where it was alleged that John Gotti had the tie-breaking vote on the NY State Mafia commission to have Giuliani murdered while he was working as a US attorney for the Justice Dept.?)
    I believe that Obama has to have at least a couple of hundred delegate lead going into the convention. If Obama heads into it with only a slight lead, you could bet that Hillary is going to try to get those Florida and Michigan delegates to count–I’ve already heard preliminary arguments to the effect that ‘every state’s vote should count in selecting the nominee.’

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  5. anon Avatar
    anon

    I will admit that Obama is a much better orator than Hillary could ever be. He’s not quite as good as Mario Cuomo, because Obama gets a little ‘shouty’ during his speeches while Cuomo had that evunculur style reminiscent of a wise sage, but he’s pretty impressive nevertheless.

    Reply
  6. Jack Whelan Avatar
    Jack Whelan

    I could list twenty five things that argue against the Giulian/Clinton comparison, not the least of which is all the negative publicity that broke about him. But in one salient respect the comparison holds: he looked like a loser, and now so does Hillary.
    People will react in one of two ways to yesterday’s wins for Obama–either, there will be a N.H.-type backlash of support for Hillary and things will balance out plod along within the stalemate narrative as we all thought. Or there has been a shift and big Obama wins will continue so that by the time 3/4 comes Texas and Ohio will have been swept up by the wave.
    Two days ago, because I expected 10-point wins at best, I thought it would be more the first option, now because of yesterday’s blowouts, I’m thinking there’s a good chance for the second. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I think it makes a difference that he won 70/30 and not 55/45. That’s all I’m sayin’. That will have an impact on next week’s contests, and that will make Clinton look a lot more like Giuliani by the end of the week if she loses big.
    Maybe nobody was paying attention to what happened yesterday, and I’m inflating the significance because I live in one of the states. We’ll see what happens in Maine today–I don’t know anything about it except that it’s a caucus state–good for BO–and it’s right next to MA and N.H–not good for BO–especially if its response to yesterday will be New Hampshire like. It will tell us whether the momentum has reached that part of the country. It had not by last Tuesday in MA.

    Reply
  7. Matt Zemek Avatar
    Matt Zemek

    Jack,
    At least with respect to Ohio, I’m (cautiously) beginning to agree with you that these blowouts–not mere wins, but blowouts in a lot of these small states–are affecting the trajectory of the race.
    Keep in mind that Obama should win Wisconsin and Hawaii on the 19th after Tuesday’s three Potomac Primary states. That’s a lot of states, and it could tip the balance in a weary state such as Ohio, which doesn’t have the Latino population Texas does.
    I’m getting more confident that Obama can win Ohio and then (in late April) Pennsylvania. Even if Hillary were to win Texas, and OH/PA sweep would give Obama the nomination, or at least a delegate lead and bargaining leverage if they need to sit down with Howard Dean and make a deal before the Denver convention.
    The real issue we’re looking at, Jack, is if the Clintons are able to flex their political muscles and overturn the decision to not seat the Florida and Michigan delegates. That’s the issue the Democratic Party and the DNC need to deal with.

    Reply
  8. Jack Whelan Avatar
    Jack Whelan

    I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I am interested to see what happens in Maine. Will it be more like NH and MA or more like WA and NE? If the latter, I think we have a strong indicator that there is indeed a stalemate breaking shift going on.

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