I had a plumbing quasi-crisis I had to deal with most of the evening, so I have only been able to pay intermittent attention. A good, not great, showing overall for Obama, although a 55/45 loss in California (with 20% of the vote count in as I write) seems to be a pretty big disappointment for Obama. But his camp says he has a good chance to end the day leading Clinton with the most committed delegates–currently Obama: 677 – Clinton: 634. My basic hope was for Obama to keep it close today and to trust to his momentum as he goes forward. Even if those numbers slip somewhat, he’s certainly achieved that preliminary objective.
It’s seems pretty clear, though, that Clinton’s support, especially among older voters is pretty solid. Obama seems to be a roll of the dice for the over 45s, and they prefer to go with the more known quantity, and momentum or no, I don’t think that demographic will change its mind much. Younger voters overwhelmingly prefer Obama, but it won’t matter if they don’t show up in greater numbers; I’ll be interested to see what percentage of the vote the under 30s represented, especially in the big states. More on that tomorrow, another busy day for me, so when I have the chance here and there.
UPDATE 1: California has got to be a disappointment for Obama–a double digit loss. Some interesting stats from the exit polls:
- Women 55% of the vote go 59% for Clinton. Identity voting women will continue to play a significant role. About a quarter of voters said gender was a consideration in their vote, and of those 70% voted for Clinton.
- Clinton won 60% of the California gay vote.
- Church attenders went overwhelmingly for Clinton. That should mollify
the secularists out there who are concerned about Obama’s Christian religiosity.
- Clinton wins the under 30 vote 51-47. White voters in this age group
accounting for 6% of voters went for Obama 62-43, Black voters, it
would appear, didn’t show up, so accounted for only 1% of the vote, and
Latinos in this group, like whites accounting for 6% of the vote, went
67-34 Clinton. Figures are similar for the 30-44 age group. So there’s
your difference. The Latino 18-45 vote in California trumps white and
black voters combined. Any Californian readers want to explain what’s
going on there? Is Dolores Huerta that big of a deal? Or is something
else at the bottom of it?
- Obama didn’t even get the college graduates losing 46-45, but won the post graduates 48-46.
- Edwards is still getting between 6-8% of the vote. To what degree is that muddying the waters?
I live in Washington State and its caucus comes up on Saturday. We also have a primary the following Saturday. We Washingtonians love the political process. The Dem primary has no effect on delegate selection, but we just have one anyway. So Obama will probably win the caucuses and lose the primary, which is fine. The caucuses come first, so that will be the indicator to the nation whether the post-Super Tuesday trend is going Clinton’s or Obama’s way. Finally we’re relevant, more or less.
By the way, I prefer the caucus system to primary voting at this early stage in the process. I think it forces people to think about their choices a little more and lessens the chance that people will just vote on the basis of their unchallenged biases. Better a thought-through vote than an unconsidered one.
The people who are motivated, engaged, and interested should have more to say about who the candidates are, and if showing up at a caucus is too much to demand, too bad. And they should make their case with their neighbors or at the very least hear what their neighbors have to say. My son will be 18 at the time of the election, so this is his first vote, and he is into
this campaign in a big way. He’ll be caucusing and I couldn’t think of
a better way to introduce him to democracy at the grass roots.
UPDATE 2: Sullivan makes a good case for Obama’s executive abilities. This seems to be major problem for older, more cautious voters. I think that this idea is that he’s nothing more than euphoric inspiration is bogus. I think a lot of people are not seeing it because they have a knee-jerk reaction to people like Obama as romantics and as such impractical dreamers. It’s possible to be both write both poetry and prose.
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