I tuned in thinking it would be a bore, but I got hooked. I found it compelling. I think it will have a winnowing effect. Webb and Chafee came off as quasi ridiculous. O'Malley came across as an earnest empty suit.
Clinton will win the nomination if most Dems are willing to settle for another establishment candidate, and I'm not sure that's going to win in the end. I still find it hard to believe Bernie could win, but after last night it seems less hard to believe. I think in that sense he won the debate because his greatest weakness is that a lot of people don't believe he belongs on the stage, that he's a lefty flake like Dennis Kucinich. But he's no Kucinich. He has huge weaknesses, but watching him last night, I think he just might be able to overcome them.
People are sick of business as usual. Bernie comes across as very refreshing and compelling because he's truly the no-b.s., honest man, and that's what selling right now. The challenge for him is to prove that he's legit, and I think he took huge strides in that direction tonight. He was surprisingly good–much smoother, nimbler, more thoughtful, and effective in his messaging than I expected. I think he proved he belonged on the stage, and while most insiders don't believe that's true yet, it doesn't matter what insiders think when it comes to the outsider game that is elections.
Media insiders understand the inside game within the Beltway, but they tend to be clueless about what's going on out in the country. They're the last to know when something important is happening there, and while I'm not sure yet there is something important going on, Bernie is in a very strong position to tap into the populist energies that are seething outside the Beltway. Hillary isn't. No matter how far Hillary tacks left to pander to the base, she will remain the conventional, establishment, business-as-usual safe candidate–and that gives Bernie a huge opening if he can find a way to run into it. The media insiders will do their best to "Howard-Dean" him, but he's no Howard Dean.
Bernie, if he's elected, will have to play the insider game, but unlike Obama when he was elected, Bernie's been playing it for years–he understands how the system works. And he's not likely to get elected, anyway, unless he generates a huge amount of excitement that in turn will generate the voter turnout that could change the balance of power in Congress. Hillary will not generate that kind of excitement.
There will be two main factions: the conventional liberal Dems who will vote for Hillary mainly because for them the most important issue is to elect a woman president. The other faction will support Bernie because he just might be able to change the game that Hillary is too comfortable playing. I'm not sure yet which faction is larger.
Update: Here's the Colbert take
Leave a Reply